PERAMALAN DAN PENENTUAN TARGET PRODUKSI KEDELAI NASIONAL
Kedelai merupakan salah satu bahan pangan yang banyak dikonsumsi masyarakat Indonesia dalam bentuk produk olahan seperti tempe, tahu, dan kecap. Permintaan kedelai mentah sebagai bahan baku cenderung meningkat melampaui kapasitas produksi dalam negeri. Tercatat hanya sekitar 65% produksi lokal untuk memenuhi pasar kedelai domestik dan selebihnya berasal dari impor. Oleh karena itu, kebijakan dan program yang tepat untuk peningkatan produksi lokal sangat dibutuhkan. Hal pertama yang perlu dilakukan adalah menentukan target produksi kedelai yang akan dicapai. Target ini akan menentukan alokasi sumberdaya dan program yang sesuai. Dalam risalah ini dilakukan kajian penentuan target yang akuntabel dan realiastis melalui pendekatan peramalan kuantitatif. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa metode peramalan weighted moving average untuk data produksi tahunan dan metode Holt's Winter (Multiplicative) untuk data produksi musiman adalah model peramalan terbaik dengan tingkat kesalahan terkecil. Kedua metode ini dapat diadopsi oleh Kementerian Pertanian dalam menentukan target produksi kedelai. Kisaran target produksi kedelai yang direkomendasikan untuk tahun 2019 adalah 971,489.45 ± 132,732.33 ton.
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